Fri, 28 August 2020
343: K-Shaped Recovery, Inflated, How Money & Debt Built the American Dream by R. Christopher Whalen
Jason Hartman talks about the K-Shaped recovery. Are we moving to a smaller economy? Can Biden kill the 1031 exchange, and use those tax funds elsewhere? How will this impact every aspect of real estate surrounding investor deals?
Jason interviews Chairman of Whalen Global Advisors LLC, R. Christopher Whalen. Whalen speaks on location changes of people and businesses due to Coronavirus. Not only are business locations changing, but companies have been forced to move away from the “old way” of doing business and finally adapting to innovations in technology and communication. Whalen also gives a glimpse into his recent book and discusses the fed’s strategy to steer clear of deflationary times. Will we see consequences from the creation of money and bailouts?
Books: Inflated, How Money & Debt Built the American Dream by R. Christopher Whalen
[1:00] Jason talks about the recovery shapes: are we moving into a smaller economy?
[5:00] Businesses going virtual.
[9:20] Biden wants to kill the 1031 exchange.
[15:00] Could Biden use the elimination of the 1031 exchange as a way of embarrassing Trump?
R. Christopher Whalen
[21:00] Not only are people leaving big cities, like NYC, because of COVID-19, but large companies are also looking to move so that they can relocate the people that work within them.
[23:30] Coronavirus has forced businesses to move out of “the old way.”
[27:50] A brief history of banking, from Abraham Lincoln to present.
[30:20] Before the creation of The Fed, J.P. Morgan was essentially the central bank.
[32:00] Whalen breaks down how he differentiates between inflated as he puts it and inflation.
[37:15] Will we see any consequences from the creation of money and bailouts?
[38:00] Quantitative Easing: central banks buy government bonds or other financial assets to inject money into the economy to expand its activity.
Direct download: AIPIS_343K_Shaped_Inflated_How_Money__Debt_Built_the_American_Dream_by_R._Christopher_Whalen.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 12:00pm EST
Fri, 21 August 2020
Jason Hartman speaks with Leslie Appleton-Young, vice-president and chief economist for the California Association of Realtors. Leslie brings several charts and graphs to the conversation to share some staggering movement in California's real estate. In January, 2020 was shaping up to be a knock out year, but due to the Coronavirus pandemic, we are now looking at best for a quick recovery. Leslie and Jason draw correlations between the 2008 recession and recovery to the recent, seemingly, self-imposed recession.
As well, Leslie shares data to support buyer/seller trends as emotions shift from the COVID-19 impact. The question continues to go unanswered, how will malls, retail space, and hotels change post coronavirus?
[7:30] Jason and Leslie discuss predictions based on the Q2 hit in 2020, ranging from a 25% - 42% decline.
[9:00] The buy-side of real estate is doing well, likely because of record low interest rates, more space needed for home offices, and more space desired in quarantine times.
[15:30] In January, the 2020 expectation was to be a great year based on some standard metrics.
[16:20] We have not had a breakout market since the 2008 recession due to income and affordability restraints.
[19:00] The virus and the government's response are two major contributing factors to set the tone for sellers and the recovery of the real estate market.
[20:15] What is the general tone of California, are people staying or going?
[24:45] We've seen a considerable adaptation of technology in the real estate industry.
[30:00] Buyers feel a sense of urgency without expecting deals, while sellers are reluctant to lower their prices.
[35:30] Jason and Leslie discuss the lack of supply and the building restrictions as one of the leading causes for a reduced amount of new homes being built.
[38:00] How could malls, retail space, and hotels change into residential units for affordable housing, senior centers, or homeless shelters?
[40:30] What shape will the recovery take on? V, square root, swoosh, or W?
[43:00] The work-from-home order will likely be huge for housing.
Fri, 14 August 2020
Dr. Bryan Taylor joins Jason Hartman as they rewind the clock 1,000 years to look at the history of interest rates and housing costs. The bubonic plague and the Spanish Flu have both had an impact on economics. How does this relate to Coronavirus?
Living in urban areas has historically been out of necessity. Currently, technological advances have taken away the demand for living in highly populated areas. Taylor and Hartman discuss the change in housing costs as influenced by the bubonic plague 800 years ago, but how reliable is this information?
[2:00] Are interest rates the lowest they’ve ever been in history?
[3:20] Government debt explained based on the influences surrounding World War II
[4:20] Did Paul Volcker make the right moves?
[5:30] Are interest rates too low? What’s the fallout?
[8:30] Prices are being controlled mainly by a lack of demand.
[12:00] Flashback 102 years to the Spanish Flu, what happened economically?
[16:00] Are we to face a repeat of the roaring ’20s?
[20:00] Technology has solved the necessity of living in urban areas.
[21:15] During the bubonic plague, 1/3 third of the population was wiped out, while the houses remained, causing the most significant housing price drop in history.
[25:25] How reliable is 800-year-old data?
Fri, 7 August 2020
Dan Millman, author of The Life You Were Born To Live, is here to discuss the loneliness epidemic as well as his recent book. The question that surrounds this discussion is, "What do I want to look back on five years from now, when this is behind us?" Dan and Jason discuss the challenges of constraints but the creativity that comes from it. How will people cope with the loneliness epidemic?
[0:00] Guest Dan Millman
[2:45] How will people cope with the loneliness epidemic? Will coronavirus impact our interaction with technology in a positive way?
[5:00] There’s a huge difference between not being able to eat, and choosing not to eat.
[8:00] Constraints breed creativity.
[11:00] Athlete’s understand the law of presence.
[15:15] Are we spiritually weight lifting now?
[17:45] Being at home, and less stimulated, is tuning up our RAS, reticular activating system.
[19:45] “Right now humanity is going through a transformation and no one promised that it will always be pleasant.” -Millman
[24:00] What do I want to look back on five or ten years from now? How did I treat this period?